The Academy awards are in three days and I just wanted to give a quick rundown of who I would vote and who I think will win.
Best Picture - This is a race between The Hurt Locker and Avatar. It's the first time in a long time that there wasn't a nearly sure thing heading in to Oscar night, probably since Brokeback Mountain vs Crash. Inglourious Basterds even has an outside chance after getting the top SAG award. But the favorite here, and the one I think will win, is Hurt Locker. With the exception of the SAG to Basterds and the GG that went to Avatar, it's won every major precursor. Avatar won't be an upset by any means, however. My vote here would go to Basterds. Yes, Avatar is more revolutionary and Locker is more socially relevant, but Basterds has the best story and the best characters with Tarantino's one of a kind flair. My favorite movie this year was actually (500) Days of Summer, but it didn't make it to the dance.
Best Director - As usual, this race mirrors the best picture race. The five nominees here represent the five movies that no doubt would have been nominated in a typical Oscar year. Right or wrong, I really think the edge here goes to Locker's Kathryn Bigelow as she would become the first woman to ever win this category. If she were a man, I think Cameron would win for Avatar. I know it's sexist in a way, but the Academy is known for handing out statues that represent a larger body of work than the film for which a nominee is currently up for. I also think that extends to any tie going to the historical factor, in this case first woman director to win. Yes, Sophia Coppola lost this category just six years ago, but she wasn't in a virtual tie, she was up against the Return of the King behemoth. I again here take the third option and would vote for Tarantino. He offers one of the most unique voices in the history of Hollywood and will be rewarded for it some day.
Best Actor - Having only seen two of the five nominees here, I have to abstain. Jeff Bridges is going to win.
Best Actress - Similar dynamic as the best picture race. The match up here is Sandra Bullock vs Meryl Streep. Bullock has the edge in all the precursors, but I really think the idea of the next All-About-Steve-esque movie carrying the tag "Oscar winner Sandra Bullock" will give voters pause. I think Streep wins in a minor upset. She's the most nominated actor ever and hasn't been rewarded in 26 years. My vote goes to newcomer Gabourey Sidibe, but only after seeing how bubbly and giggly she is in real life compared to her counterpart, Precious.
Best Supporting Actor - Inglourious Basterds's Christopher Waltz will make it three villains in a row in the category following Javier Bardem and Heath Ledger. Possible upset is Christopher Plummer as the Academy does like to reward veterans here. My vote is Waltz.
Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique. Hands down, no contest, surest bet of the evening. Up is more likely to lose the animated film category than Mo'Nique is to lose here. And she absolutely deserves it. The most emotionally wrenching scene of this entire film year is her climatic confession in Precious.
Original Screenplay - Tough to call. The favorite here is probably Hurt Locker as the best picture winner typically adds a screenplay win. But in a tight year, enough people may choose to reward Tarantino here or even the Pixar geniuses for Up. I'm going to play it safe and say it's Hurt Locker's night all around. My vote, yet again, is to Tarantino, though I'd be seriously tempted to angrily write-in (500) Days of Summer.
Adapted Screenplay - I think Up in the Air wins here because the Academy is ready to reward Jason Reitman who is proving to be the best young filmmaker in the business. It'd probably get my vote too.
I'm going to pass on the minor categories and just see what happens Sunday, after which I think I'll rewatch (500) Days of Summer.
