The King's Speech

I do believe Colin Firth has just won himself an Oscar. His biggest challengers will likely be James Franco (127 Hours) and Jesse Eisenberg (Social Network) as they were the only other two nominated for both a Golden Globe and a SAG. Eisenberg's performance is too understated to win it all and Firth will beat Franco by seniority, if nothing else.

None of this is meant to imply that Firth doesn't earn every bit of it. As King George VI, Firth plays the life-long stammerer thrust into power at the beginning of the age of radio. The British Empire fully expects to hear the voice of their monarch, especially as war looms with Germany in 1939. Beyond just the speech impediment, Bertie (as he is known to his family) fights insecurities so great that he wonders if he's fit to be king at all.

A remarkable true story especially when one considers that this nervous and reluctant king's progeny will likely reign for centuries to come.

The Fighter

Whatever you do, don't try to dismiss this as just another boxing movie. In The Fighter what happens in the ring is ultimately of very little consequence. I still have a few contenders (no pun intended) to see this year, but this is the best character drama of the year. The script is great and the acting is fantastic. Every fight keeps you on the edge of your seat, both the ones in the ring and those outside it.

Christian Bale has to be the favorite for the Oscar playing Mark Wahlberg's older brother who has fallen from the local hero, who once knocked down Sugar Ray Leonard, to crack addict.

The film perfectly shows how a family can simultaneously destroy each other and love each other unconditionally.

True Grit

I hate to say I was disappointed, because this was a very good movie, but it failed to excite me to the same level as its trailer did.

I had been defending the show against those calling it a remake of the Oscar-winning John Wayne film as it is merely based on the same novel. After watching it, however, it is harder to defend as it does feel like a remake. Most notably, Barry Pepper seems to be doing his best Robert Duvall impression in the same role Duvall played in the original.

None of that is technically a problem and I really did enjoy the movie. The dialogue was superb and handled brilliantly by the actors. Jeff Bridges and Hailee Steinfeld have both received SAG nominations.

The biggest problem was a narrative one that may derive from being too faithful to the book (which I have not read). Without giving anything away, the ending is extremely anticlimactic and takes an unfulfilling turn. You could argue the same thing with the Coen brothers masterpiece No Country for Old Men, but its ending fits the spirit of the movie. That isn't the case here.

I do recommend the movie, but the trailer is even better.

The Town

The opening titles here tell us that in the Charlestown neighborhood of Boston, robbing banks is a family business. Ben Affleck directs and stars as one of these robbers hoping to turn his life around after meeting a beautiful bank manager.

I made a point to watch this as it has received favorable reviews and is a fringe contender this awards season. It was pretty good. The script was only slightly above average, but Affleck did a good job directing it.

The highlight was the acting, most notably Jeremy Renner, who is frightening as Affleck's violent best friend. If there's a nomination to be found here, he's it, especially on the heels of his first nomination last year for The Hurt Locker.

SAG/Golden Globe comments

After a long absence, here are a few observations about the first leg of awards season.

I guess I don’t have too much to analyze about the Golden Globes. No surprises in the number of noms for the juggernaut Glee and for 30 Rock, which is possibly the most complete comedy of our time (Arrested Development is funnier, but it had such a short life! It will always feel incomplete, and that’s part of its mystique.) I know he isn’t necessarily the best actor out there this year, but think this year might be the year for Steve Carell – he’s won zero SAGs and one GG for seven seasons at the helm at The Office, and he’s on his way out after this season. I especially suspect he might get the SAG as a nod of respect from his peers (as opposed to the GG). Plus we’ve seen from Dan in Real Life, etc. that he’s a damn good actor, even though The Office has had its ups and downs. And - MILD MILD MILD SPOILER – since they brought Holly back to the show you know they’re gearing up for some major season-end Michael Scott drama. He has to have a good exit and that’s even more time for him to shine.

This might be a dumb question, but is The Big Bang Theory really that good? I just have a hard time believing that someone from either Weeds, Modern Family, Community, Chuck or HIMYM doesn’t deserve most of their nomination spots instead. Maybe I’m missing out.

One thing I particularly like about the SAGs is that they cover their bases better than lots of award shows. Awards for ensemble casts by genre and best stunt ensembles make it so they can award some really specific achievements and I suspect that comes from being some of the most familiar people with the shooting process, as opposed to a voting pool that includes say, critics. They also aren’t afraid to recognize a really great talent in a show that’s maybe not so great. I’m talking specifically about Mariska Hargitay, Law and Order SVU’s Detective Olivia Benson. I am a sucker for this show, but I think despite its tendency to rip stories from the headlines and try cheesy one-liners it does two important things: 1) it does a good job of illustrating and having frank discussions about what happens when women are raped, and 2) it shows a strong female lead dealing with it. There are a million crime shows out there but SVU is the only one that’s not afraid to approach subjects like the stigma that comes with being a rape victim and the fear and red tape that come with actually bringing a rapist to justice. Hargitay's been quoted about the amount of fan mail she gets from women who find a little bit of solace in watching her in SVU. It might not be the most cut-and-dry or direct way to do it, and I’m sure their mind isn’t wholly on the greater good, but I like that SVU is doing a little bit to raise awareness about all of that.

It makes me chuckle that Johnny Depp was nominated for The Tourist AND Alice, but I’m glad that Alice is getting a little recognition. While I hate to admit it, I am among those who think that most childhood stories and fairy tales could benefit from a Tim Burton take, and Alice certainly benefits my side of that argument. And on that note, I thought The Tourist wasn’t supposed to be *that* good?

Black Swan

Nina Sayers is a technically flawless dancer, but she struggles to find the sensuality needed to play the seductive Black Swan.

Natalie Portman stars as Nina, whose obsession with perfection is quite literally driving her crazy. Portman is sure to be a front-runner for the Oscar. Parts like this are all too rare for actresses. Also stunning is Mila Kunis who has officially shed her cocoon as the annoying girlfriend on That 70s Show. She impressed me as smart and sexy in Forgetting Sarah Marshall and takes that to another degree here. Both actresses have received Golden Globe and SAG nominations.

Darren Aronofsky is his usual self as a master of heavy, visceral material.

Ultimately, however, I don’t think the script is strong enough for this to go all the way. Some moments are downright hokey. It’s almost as if they took a script that could have easily been a throw-away thriller and gave it to an Oscar-caliber production team.

Oscar Preview

The Academy awards are in three days and I just wanted to give a quick rundown of who I would vote and who I think will win.

Best Picture - This is a race between The Hurt Locker and Avatar. It's the first time in a long time that there wasn't a nearly sure thing heading in to Oscar night, probably since Brokeback Mountain vs Crash. Inglourious Basterds even has an outside chance after getting the top SAG award. But the favorite here, and the one I think will win, is Hurt Locker. With the exception of the SAG to Basterds and the GG that went to Avatar, it's won every major precursor. Avatar won't be an upset by any means, however. My vote here would go to Basterds. Yes, Avatar is more revolutionary and Locker is more socially relevant, but Basterds has the best story and the best characters with Tarantino's one of a kind flair. My favorite movie this year was actually (500) Days of Summer, but it didn't make it to the dance.

Best Director - As usual, this race mirrors the best picture race. The five nominees here represent the five movies that no doubt would have been nominated in a typical Oscar year. Right or wrong, I really think the edge here goes to Locker's Kathryn Bigelow as she would become the first woman to ever win this category. If she were a man, I think Cameron would win for Avatar. I know it's sexist in a way, but the Academy is known for handing out statues that represent a larger body of work than the film for which a nominee is currently up for. I also think that extends to any tie going to the historical factor, in this case first woman director to win. Yes, Sophia Coppola lost this category just six years ago, but she wasn't in a virtual tie, she was up against the Return of the King behemoth. I again here take the third option and would vote for Tarantino. He offers one of the most unique voices in the history of Hollywood and will be rewarded for it some day.

Best Actor - Having only seen two of the five nominees here, I have to abstain. Jeff Bridges is going to win.

Best Actress - Similar dynamic as the best picture race. The match up here is Sandra Bullock vs Meryl Streep. Bullock has the edge in all the precursors, but I really think the idea of the next All-About-Steve-esque movie carrying the tag "Oscar winner Sandra Bullock" will give voters pause. I think Streep wins in a minor upset. She's the most nominated actor ever and hasn't been rewarded in 26 years. My vote goes to newcomer Gabourey Sidibe, but only after seeing how bubbly and giggly she is in real life compared to her counterpart, Precious.

Best Supporting Actor - Inglourious Basterds's Christopher Waltz will make it three villains in a row in the category following Javier Bardem and Heath Ledger. Possible upset is Christopher Plummer as the Academy does like to reward veterans here. My vote is Waltz.

Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique. Hands down, no contest, surest bet of the evening. Up is more likely to lose the animated film category than Mo'Nique is to lose here. And she absolutely deserves it. The most emotionally wrenching scene of this entire film year is her climatic confession in Precious.

Original Screenplay - Tough to call. The favorite here is probably Hurt Locker as the best picture winner typically adds a screenplay win. But in a tight year, enough people may choose to reward Tarantino here or even the Pixar geniuses for Up. I'm going to play it safe and say it's Hurt Locker's night all around. My vote, yet again, is to Tarantino, though I'd be seriously tempted to angrily write-in (500) Days of Summer.

Adapted Screenplay - I think Up in the Air wins here because the Academy is ready to reward Jason Reitman who is proving to be the best young filmmaker in the business. It'd probably get my vote too.

I'm going to pass on the minor categories and just see what happens Sunday, after which I think I'll rewatch (500) Days of Summer.

Top 10 Movies of 2009

Oscar ballots are due today (for those who actually get to vote), so even though I haven't seen a few contenders, I figured I'd throw out my top ten of the year as if I had to submit them today.

10. District 9 - Realistic, thought-provoking alien movie. Great look into the human condition.

9. Public Enemies - Nothing we haven't seen before story-wise, but a very well done movie by Michael Mann, staring the always-great Johnny Depp.

8. Avatar - I liked it, I really did. But story and characters matter more to me than anything. So, yes, Avatar is an absolute game changer in the movie world for it's visuals, but everything else was only good, not great.

7. Precious - This is this year's tear-jerker and it deserves to win not only best supporting actress (which it is favored to) but also best lead actress.

6. Star Trek - I rewatched this on DVD and, yes, it's that good. I know it probably won't get the best picture nomination, but I'd love to see it score an adapted screenplay nomination.

5. Up in the Air - One of those movies you could watch over and over again. Jason Reitman seems to have developed a knack for that rather quickly. It's probably not ambitious enough to win best picture and it didn't pull me in enough to rank any higher on my list, but I really like it.

4. Zombieland - I'm surprised this hasn't been getting more buzz. This is a better, more original comedy than The Hangover. It's not even about the zombies. It's about unique characters, who happened to have survived a zombie apocalypse. It's a character comedy, posing as a spoof. Sorry, Shaun of the Dead, you are no longer the best zombie-comedy.

3. The Hurt Locker - In all honesty, this is probably the movie that "should" win best picture. It's gritty, compelling, and reaches a wide range of movie goers. It also has a very strong chance of providing the first best director win to a female director. Though the Golden Globes showed Avatar may be another Titanic for James Cameron.

2. Inglourious Basterds - Tarantino - genius - 'nuff said.

1. (500) Days of Summer - Like Zombieland, I can't believe this show isn't being elevated as a serious contender this awards season. Original, funny, heartfelt, superbly acted, wonderfully written, (500) Days of Summer is the best movie of 2009.