Oscars 2007 - One Word: Balanced

An amazing thirteen movies received three or more nominations this morning. The biggest surprise (and probably unprecedented) is Dreamgirls winning the GG and earning the most Oscar nominations (8) without getting a best pic nom. Here's a quick rundown.

Dreamgirls - 8
Babel - 7
The Queen - 6
Pan's Labyrinth - 6
Blood Diamond - 5
The Departed - 5
Letters from Iwo Jima - 4
Little Miss Sunshine - 4
Notes on a Scandal - 4
Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest - 4
Apocalypto - 3
Children of Men - 3
Little Children - 3

Two trends elevate Babel to a huge favorite to win best picture: it's win at the GG and it's leading the best pic nominees with 7 nominations. However, if we've learned anything the last few years it's that trends don't mean anything.

Other surprises:

DiCaprio up for Blood Diamond instead of The Departed, making Mark Wahlberg the only acting nom for Departed.

10-year-old Abigail Breslin up for Supporting Actress (though oscarigloo did call that one).

Paul Greengrass earns directing nom for United 93.

Three of Dreamgirls's nominations come in the same category: original song.

Best foreign language category drastically different than GG's. Iwo Jima moves into Best Picture, Apocalypto likely left out for lack of a Mayan speaking country (not sure how that works, but I think that's the same thing that kept Passion of the Christ out), Volver snubbed. Pan's Labyrinth becomes the hands down favorite here now. It has also just climbed into the IMDb top 100 of all-time.


Balance like this should make for more big surprises when the winners are announced. With votes more evenly distributed, films most people vote against, can still end up winning. In theory, a film could win best picture with only 21% of the vote (if the others get 20, 20, 20, & 19). It's impossible to tell who that favors. I'd be willing to bet that no best pic nom has more than 40% of the Academy planning to vote for it, so anything is possible. While I'm still backing The Departed, how crazy would it be to see Little Miss Sunshine emerge from that battle?