Here is my prediction for the eventual Oscar best pic noms, in order of certainty: Dreamgirls, Babel, The Queen, The Departed... after that it's hard to say, but I'll go with Little Miss Sunshine. I do see that fifth spot as a definite opportunity for the rare occurrence of a non GG nominee getting an Oscar best pic nom. Unless I'm mistaken, that has not happened since The Shawshank Redemption in 1994. Based on the directing noms, Letters From Iwo Jima would be a likely candidate if that happens.
So, close. I picked the right surprise nominee, but the wrong odd-man out.
I'm here now to make my prediction for the Best Picture winner -
Rationale: Two years ago, I felt Million Dollar Baby was the best movie of the year, but was 100% certain that The Aviator would win best pic. It had won the Golden Globe and earned the most Oscar nominations, two indicators that, even independently, almost always signal victory. Million Dollar Baby won.
Last year, Crash was my favorite movie of the year, but I didn't think it was the type of production that the Academy would even nominate. I figured it was sitting in the 5th spot and had no chance to win even if another movie did upset Brokeback Mountain. Crash won.
This year, while there is no clear front runner, I have decided that, collectively, the Academy is starting to think more and more like me (this is possible as I understand their voter dynamic has changed in the last few years).
Return of the King was also my favorite movie in 2003, but I felt that one would win. I do still need to see Letters from Iwo Jima, so I may have to scrap this prediction after watching it, but I'll say it again:
The Departed will win Best Picture. 
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