So, out of the major contenders for Best Pic, this is how they stack up for IMDB voters thus far:
- Slumdog Millionaire, 8.6 with just under 8,000 votes.
- Doubt, 8.0 with about 1,000 votes
- Ben Button, 8.7 with 1,000 votes
- Milk, 8.3 with 5,500ish votes
- Revolutionary Road, 8.0 with 800 votes
- Frost/Nixon, 8.2 with 2,500 votes
- The Wrestler, 8.8 with 2,600 votes
Interesting development: Awards Circuit has now added WALL-E to its predictions for top 5 films. I really liked the film, but I can't believe that will happen. But, they had a big win with the LAFCA and, it's held on to an 8.6 for what must be six months now, with 101,000 votes and #34 on the top 250 list on IMDB.
So, things to note:
I know that Frost/Nixon has had a few sneak previews (freaking Columbia, Mo!), and I assume the same for The Wrestler.
From what I've seen, numbers tend to go up after a wide release* (and people who are less critical than those who review movies for a living or go to sneak previews start voting in force). This makes me wonder, where the heck will Ben Button end up? Will the weirdness of the story affect its reception upon wide release (which was yesterday)? What about The Wrestler? It's higher rating still doesn't have it anywhere near WALL-E on the top 250 list, so most of the regular voters haven't even voted yet (who will, I'll make a wild guess, will love it).
*Note: This does not apply to cult films.
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I disagree with Award Circuit's prediction of Wall-E. Animated movies have always had it rough, just like sci-fi, action, horror, and all the other non-drama genres. Beauty and the Beast stands as the only animated best picture nominee and that was BEFORE they added an animated category. While foreign movies can still make it into the coveted five, I honestly don't think an animated movie ever will again.
And I'm still holding out hope for The Dark Knight's nomination. For five consecutive years, the Academy and I have agreed on the best picture of the year. I like to think its collective voting body is pretty much in line with my sentimentalities. I've seen three serious contenders now: Slumdog, Milk, and Ben Button. The Dark Knight still stands above them all.
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