The SAG nominations came out recently and I just wanted to briefly compare them to the GG nominations and speculate on the impending Oscar noms. My thinking is that anything they agree on pretty much becomes a lock for an Oscar nom.
Best Actor: SAG - Richard Jenkins (The Visitor); GG - DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road)
That leaves Sean Penn (Milk), Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler), Brad Pitt (Ben Button), and Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) as "locks."
Note - Even though Oscar nominations come only from members working in the field of a particular category, the Oscar noms and SAG noms don't always match up. My guess is this is due to the smaller voting pool of Academy actors.
Best Actress: SAG - Melissa Leo (Frozen River); GG - Kristen Scott Thomas (I've Loved You So Long).
"Locks": Angelina Jolie (Changling), Meryl Streep (Doubt), Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Note - Obviously, the GG nominate 10 leading actors and actresses. I only looked at the dramatic performances which does leave alive someone like Sally Hawkins (Happy Go Lucky), however, she did not make the SAG five.
Supporting Actor: SAG - Josh Brolin (Milk), Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire); GG - Tom Cruise (Tropic Thunder), Ralph Feinnes (The Duchess)
"Locks": Heath Ledger (Dark Knight), Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt), Robert Downey Jr (Tropic Thunder)
Supporting Actress: SAG - Taraji Henson (Ben Button); GG - Marissa Tomei (Wrestler)
"Locks": Amy Adams (Doubt), Viola Davis (Doubt), Kate Winslet (The Reader), Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
SAG Best Cast: Doubt, Milk
GG Best Drama: The Reader, Revolutionary Road
"Locks" for Oscar best pic: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire
This puts Milk back alive in the best picture race after getting snubbed by the GG. Things are not looking good for The Dark Knight. Once again, Heath was its only nomination. I could still see it getting four to six total Oscar noms with technical awards, but it seems that's the best it can hope for.
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